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Researchers analyzed blood metabolite profiles from 18,476 people aged 1 to 96 and developed measures of metabolomic age and mortality-related age deviation. The measures were associated with chronic disease and death risk, and modestly improved risk discrimination beyond several existing health measures; the observational study does not show that particular foods or lifestyle changes cause biological aging.
Researchers analyzing blood metabolite profiles from 18,476 people aged 1 to 96 developed measures of metabolomic aging that were associated with chronic disease and mortality risk. The study, published in Science Translational Medicine, suggests that blood chemistry may add information to conventional health assessments, but it does not establish that the measures can predict an individual’s future health or that specific lifestyle factors cause accelerated aging.
The research team used plasma samples from participants in the Shanghai Pudong Cohort, recruited across six centers in Shanghai, China. They developed a metabolomic age model using 5,252 healthy participants, tested it in a separate healthy group of 5,456, and examined a mortality-related age deviation measure in 7,768 participants with existing diseases. The average ages in the healthy and disease groups were 55 and 68, respectively.
For healthy participants, metabolomic age acceleration measured how far an age estimate based on blood metabolites differed from a person’s chronological age. For those with health conditions, the researchers calculated an age deviation metric reflecting how metabolite-based mortality risk differed from what was expected for age. A selected panel of 56 metabolites retained most of the age-predictive information from the full set of 232 metabolite features.
Higher metabolomic age acceleration was associated with a greater likelihood of developing conditions including diabetes, hypertension and fatty liver disease, as well as a higher risk of death from any cause. Both measures modestly improved the ability to distinguish people at higher and lower mortality risk beyond frailty assessments, cardiovascular health scores and routine blood biomarkers. The study also identified associations with factors such as smoking, shift work, exercise and diet, but those findings do not establish cause and effect.
What Blood-Based Age Measures Add
Chronological age is a broad indicator, while people of the same age can have different health histories and risks. A measure based on metabolites circulating in blood could potentially help researchers and clinicians distinguish risk among people whose ages alone offer limited detail. In this study, the measures were associated with disease burden and mortality, and provided a modest improvement over some existing assessments.
The findings are a research development, not a validated clinical test or a basis for diagnosing disease. The study did not show that using the measures to guide care improves health outcomes. Further work would be needed to establish how reliably they perform in other populations and whether they add practical value to routine assessment.
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How Researchers Measured Metabolomic Aging
The study used nano-assisted laser desorption/ionization mass spectrometry to analyze plasma. Baseline assessments took place in 2019; participants’ chronic disease status was reassessed in 2023, and deaths were tracked through January 2025. Some participants completed repeat surveys and health assessments in 2023, while 1,500 underwent repeat metabolomic profiling.
The team also retrained its ensemble approach using data from the UK Biobank, the U.S. National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey, and human gut microbiome research. The report describes this as testing the approach across different data types; it does not mean that the same blood-based test was independently validated as a clinical tool in those populations.
“The findings highlight the potential of plasma metabolomic profiling for future population-level risk assessment and improved risk stratification.”
— The study authors, as summarized by News-Medical
Limits of the Current Evidence
The findings are based on an observational cohort, so associations between metabolite measures, disease, mortality and reported behaviors do not prove that one caused another. The available report also does not provide enough detail to assess the measures’ accuracy for individual patients, their performance across all demographic groups, or whether they would change medical decisions.
Although the study included participants across a wide age range, its cohort came from Shanghai. How well the results apply to other populations remains uncertain. The reported improvements in mortality-risk discrimination were described as modest; the study does not establish that the measures outperform existing tests in a way that would improve outcomes.
Validation Before Clinical Use
The next steps are to test the measures in independent cohorts and determine whether they remain informative across different populations and health settings. Researchers would also need to establish how stable the measurements are over time and whether adding them to standard assessments improves decisions or patient outcomes.
For now, the findings support further research into blood-based markers of aging and health risk. They do not warrant changing diet, exercise, or treatment based on a metabolomic age estimate; the study did not test such a clinical strategy.
Key Questions
What does metabolomic age mean?
It is an estimate derived from patterns of metabolites in blood plasma. In this study, researchers compared that estimate with chronological age to calculate metabolomic age acceleration.
Does the study show that blood can predict how long someone will live?
No. The measures were associated with mortality risk across a cohort, but the study does not establish an individual prediction of lifespan or prove that the measures can guide clinical decisions.
Did the researchers find that certain foods cause faster aging?
No. Some dietary patterns were associated with metabolomic age measures, but the research was observational. It cannot establish that particular foods caused accelerated or slower biological aging.
Could this become a routine health test?
That remains uncertain. The measures need independent validation, and researchers must show whether they improve health assessment or outcomes enough to be useful in clinical care.
Source: rss
